Hold 'Em Scholar Wrap-Up: Playing A-Q Pre-Flop

So this is where I take all the advice I've written about in previous posts regarding playing A-Q pre-flop and synthesize it. The majority on this issue says that you should generally play A-Q pre-flop from all seats at a 10 person table. The only exception is T.J. Cloutier, who says that you should not play A-Q in a tournament from seats 1 through 5. So, the real question is whether T.J.'s advice is sound.

So let's break down how good or bad a hand A-Q really is. Now, for starters, A-Q is an underdog to any pair ( ). What are the chances that someone else is holding a pocket pair at a 10 seat table? About 16.4% (math below if you're interested). So you're not likely to be facing a pair pre-flop. Even if you are facing one, you can beat most pairs by drawing an ace on the flop.

Now, in terms of overcards, only A-K is a better non-pair hand. At a 10 seat table, there is a roughly 1.3% chance that one of your opponents is holding A-K. So, combine the odds on pairs and this and there is about an 82% chance that you have the best hand when holding A-Q pre-flop. This would seem to support a bet from any position at the table, absent better information.

T.J. Cloutier's argument, however, is that what do you do when an A comes up on the flop? How do you know that one of your opponents isn't holding A-K? Obviously, you don't. The chances that someone is holding A-K, however, are quite small, as I just discussed.

Ok, so you generally want to play A-Q based on straight probabilities without knowing anything else about what your opponents are holding. But sometimes you do know more about what they are holding. What do you do with A-Q then? Let's say you're in middle or late position and there is an early position call -- a limper. Could be the limper is slowplaying a better hand than you but the odds are long against it. So the limper is probably playing a worse hand and hoping to see three more cards cheap. When you're holding A-Q, you want to raise the limper so he either folds or puts more money into the pot (at which point you can better assess whether he's slowplaying).

Now what if you're in the same position but there is an early position raise. Do you call, reraise, or fold? Obviously, the permutations here are endless (size of raise, what you know about player, etc.) but let's explore them a bit. A raise indicates some strength, so you now have to lower that 82% chance that you're holding the best hand. Indeed, it is somewhat likely that the early raiser is holding a pair, face cards, or A-x at least. Let's say you're now 50-50 to be holding the best hand and 50-50 to have the best chance of winning a showdown. Based on these odds alone, a conservative tournament player should probably fold here, particularly in the early rounds where blinds are low. The larger the raise, the worse your odds become, all else being equal, and calling such a raise is not something that a tournament survivor wants to do.

What about when you're in early position with A-Q. As I see it, it doesn't make much sense to limp in with this hand. If you do, you'll likely find yourself in a multi-way pot with a hand that could easily be second-best or worse. So, you want to put in a decent raise when you open the betting with A-Q, to discourage others from playing their hands.

So that' s the wrap. Whose advice does this sound like: a lot like Harrington's and Phil Gordon's to the extent we can tell. Now, the exception from Harrington is that he has you calling early position raises when you have A-Q suited and folding if you don't. Harrington has you raising early position limpers with A-Q suited, simply calling when you don't. So, I've essentially reasoned my way back to Harrington here.

Playing Ace-Queen from Middle Position Pre-Flop: Cloutier/McEvoy v. Harrington

What do Cloutier/McEvoy and Harrington say about playing Ace-Queen before the flop from middle position?

First, what is middle position? According to Harrington, it's seats three through six at a 10-seat table.

Cloutier/McEvoy advise folding A-Q in seats 3 through 5 before the flop in the early part of a tournament (C/M 128). There is no specific advice as to later levels of a tournament. As for seat six, Cloutier/McEvoy advise playing A-Q if there are no raises in front of you. If there is a raise(s), fold (132).

Ok. What about Harrington? Dan has you playing A-Q from middle position by raising 85% of the time and calling the other 15%. And what about if you get raised or called? Harrington provides some examples to guide you:

Harrington (190-191): You're in fifth position and the player in third position opens for 3 times the big blind. According to Dan, you call with A-Q suited and fold with A-Q unsuited.

Harrington (191-192) You're in fifth position and the player in third position calls. Raise with A-Q suited, call otherwise.

Playing Ace-Queen From Early Position Pre-Flop: Cloutier/McEvoy v. Harrington

Just to be perfectly clear, this analysis compares T.J. Cloutier and Tom McEvoy's Championship No-Limit and Pot-Limit Hold 'Em to Dan Harrington's, Harrington on Hold 'em, Vol. 1. Specifically, this entry refers to the part of Cloutier/McEvoy's book that applies to No-Limit tournaments. Harrington's book is soley devoted to N0-Limit tournaments, so no clarification needed for him.

Ace-Queen is a tricky starting hand because you can be in a bind if you flop an A or a Q. Why? If an A, then your Q kicker is beat by someone who started with A-A or A-K. If you flop a Q, you've still got to worry about overcards on the flop and later rounds. So what do these two sets of experts say to do when you're holding A-Q in early position (which Harrington defines as the first two seats at a 10-seat table--a definition I'll adopt here)?

Cloutier/McEvoy advise you to fold, or at best, limp in and fold if you get raised when you're holding A-Q in the first two seats (C/M, pp. 128-129).

Harrington, who is generally considered a conservative player, advises playing the A-Q in early position (Harrington, pp. 182-83). He advocates raising with the hand before the flop, 75% of the time and calling 25% of the time (calls are just to vary your play). As for amount of raise, Harrington says 3-5 times the big blind. Harrington' s advice is apparently based on his belief that A-Q is a pretty good hand when there aren't a lot of players in the pot but not so good otherwise. Thus, an early position raise is intended to narrow the field.

MISSION STATEMENT: NO LIMIT HOLD 'EM GREATNESS

This website will track what will hopefully be my successful career in No Limit Hold 'Em tournaments. I am relatively new to the game but have read a lot of the game's literature (i.e. Harrington, Sklansky, Cloutier, Hellmuth, etc.) and notice serious discrepancies in what some well known players have to say about the best way to play. Obviously, skilled players can differ on strategy but I want to explore whether, at any given time, there is an optimal way to play a hand, taking into account the many factors that can influence decisions. This site will examine the contradictory advice provided by the No Limit stars and try to determine what the best strategies are. The site will also detail my progress as I try to win No Limit tournaments using the knowledge that I gain and share here. If I don't make it to the top, hopefully some of you will.

A final note: my work here will be aimed at tournament play because this is the area of the No Limit universe that interests me most. If you play in regular games, you may have to adjust some of the conclusions reached here. With that said, let's start this trip.